2014-2015 Predicted Wins [and it’s sad]

by professor ggrib

An many of you know, I used a statistic technique called predicted to predict the wins and points of the Blue Jackets. After 20 games the season results become fairly stable and reliable. The biggest factor not taken into account is injuries and streaks.

He is an excerpt from the article I obtained the predicted formulas from:

For almost six decades, Leonard Koppett strode across the sport journalism landscape like a giant. His passion, innovation, and unique insights earned him accolades and acclaim, including inductions into the Baseball and Basketball Halls of Fame as a writer.

Many lauded his ability not just to communicate what had happened in the sports world, but also explain why it had happened. Koppett often used uncommon sports statistics to support his explorations and explanations.

But Koppett had a love-hate relationship with statistics.

In the last of his 16 books, The Rise and Fall of the Press Box – completed a mere two weeks before his death in 2003 – Koppett dedicates an entire chapter to his thoughts on statistics.

He minces no words, opening the section by declaring that when it comes to sports writing, the “excessive use of statistics, if not checked, may turn out to be a fatal malady.”

“Then there’s the silliest of all cliches, ‘on a pace for’… ‘Pace’ is a figment of the mathematician’s imagination.” – Leonard Koppett

Koppett’s least favorite statistic?

“Then there’s the silliest of all cliches, ‘on a pace for’. A player with 11 homers in his first 27 games is said to be ‘on a pace for 66 homers.’ Isn’t it obvious enough that home runs (and most other things) occur in irregular spurts? It’s a little less silly, but still sheer speculation, if you play the pace game after mid-season,” wrote Koppett. “Pace is a figment of the mathematician’s imagination.”

But how often does a fan encounter statements like, Steven Stamkos is on pace for 57 goals in 2011-12. Or, the Detroit Red Wings are on pace for million-and-two points this season (editor’s note: it’s more like 112).

These kinds of pace-based projections would seem to be just too tempting for the media to avoid.

Predicted Wins

One of the easiest sets of statistics to use to go beyond direct predictions based on record is a team’s scoring.

Derived from on the grade-school Pythagorean formula, sporting statement have proposed that a team’s winning percentage will be equal to to Goals For2/(Goals For2 + Goals Against2).

I have modified the basic statistics and included the NHL average of 23% of the games go to overtime, thus producing a point for the loosing team to obtain my statistic predicted.

Based on the Blue Jackets record this year, they will win 28 games and garner 68 points.

[Last year after 20 games the predicted was–38 games won and 87 points.  The actual was 42 games won and 93 points.

Now I said the statistics do not take into account injuries and a complete change in team accomplishments. [ Last year after 40 games it was 40 wins and 89 points ] But you should note we now stand after 20 games on a prediction to win 10 less games and obtain 20 less points. That’s getting to be a hell of a hole to try to dig out of.  It may be doable, but it’s getting VERY serious.

We Want the Cup

We Want the Cup

 

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